Programme title: Operational climate impacts attribution

Hosted by: Professor Guy Howard, Cabot Institute for the Environment and School of Civil, Aerospace and Design Engineering, University of Bristol

Programme summary

As human influence on climate has become increasingly apparent in the climate system, we have seen an attributable increase in the intensity of many damaging extreme weather events. However, our capability to attribute human influence to the resultant impacts on ecosystems and societies has remained challenging, as it requires the coupling of weather attribution climate models with robust impact models. These challenges are even greater when rapid attribution results are required immediately after a high-profile “natural” disaster. This Professorship aims to conceptualise and evaluate the opportunities and challenges in moving to operational extreme weather impacts attribution, and to prototype a near-real-time attribution system for water security (drought and floods) and heat-related health (mortality and morbidity) impacts. The programme will reinforce and substantially expand on a new collaboration with the Cabot Institute, anchored in a new four-year research project on heat adaptation and health in Africa, funded by the Wellcome Trust.

The programme is closely aligned with the strategic priorities of both Bristol and UCT in the climate change impacts domain. The proposed work contains a mix of easily achievable research activities, such as developing empirical heat-health models, with high-risk high-reward activities relating to prototyping and operationalising near-real-time hydro-climatic and health impacts attribution in sub-Saharan Africa.